EU Civilian Crisis Management in 2030: a Test-Run of Scenario-Based Planning

Abstract

The EU's crisis management missions are currently assembled from national contributions on an ad hoc basis. While such reactive­ness may seem inherent to crisis response, better planning is both possible and necessary. Ideally, the EU should have a central body to define and organize the capabilities needed to address future conflicts. Strategic foresight offers a workable methodology to generate a capability profile over a ten-year horizon, as a DGAP test-run with experts showed.