Artificial Polity: Anticipatory Modelling and Simulation of Political Systems. Applications to Democratic Polities in Eastern Europe

Abstract

This paper introduces a political methodology approach on polity modeling and simulation called artificial polity which combines political systems and political culture theories. It aims at introducing anticipatory systems as the modeling framework for the organization, operation, and dynamics of political systems. Anticipatory systems provide for the conceptual modeling of polities as self-referential systems which embed internal models. Agent-based systems provide for the simulation and experimental research of artificial polities which embed political culture as internal models. Artificial Polity is the outcome of a long-term political methodologic research project aimed at developing research frameworks and instruments for the study of state and governance with anticipatory dimensions. Eastern European democracy case studies are presented with the goal of evaluating the anticipatory performances of the Artificial Polity. Post-communist Eastern European countries case studies are presented with the goal of evaluating the anticipatory performances of the Artificial Polity Model. Relevant applications of the political anticipation framework as presented in this paper could further enhance research on (i) political systems resilience against various types of threat, (ii) political regime dynamics in specific economic and cultural contexts, and (iii) political systems stability and security issues.