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The Russian military escalation around Ukraine's Donbas: risks and scenarios for a revised EU policy
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deploym... view more
The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deployments, the structure of forces, and the types of observed military hardware strongly suggest the risk of an offensive operation rather than an exercise. Given the existing political costs, that operation is likely to take indirect forms by using the cover of Russian military proxies in Donbas. This crisis represents both a major challenge and an opportunity for the European Union (EU) to conduct practical work on developing its strategic autonomy and offer leadership in strengthening the security in its immediate neighbourhood. What should the EU do in practical terms to discourage further military escalation around Donbas, or at least increase the costs for such a development? (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Russia; Ukraine; military conflict; separatism; escalation; EU; security policy
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Bilateraler internationaler Konflikt; Ostukraine; Donec'kij kam'janovugil'nij basejn; Dislozierung militärischer Verbände; Militärische Manöver; Machtprojektion; Internationale Reaktion; Regionale Sicherheitspolitik von Staatengruppen; Verhalten in Krisenzeiten; North Atlantic Treaty Organization; Verteidigungs- und sicherheitsbezogene Beziehungen; Organisation für Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit in Europa; Beobachter- und Erkundungsmission
Document language
English
Publication Year
2021
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
8 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 27/2021
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2021C27
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications