Die deutsche Russlandpolitik im Lichte des Ukraine-Konflikts: Schein und Sein des interdependenztheoretischen Ansatzes zur Friedenssicherung in Europa

Abstract

This essay introduces an insufficiently appreciated aspect of Germany's Ostpolitik during the last circa 25 years into the heated European discussion about how to deal best with Putin's Russia. It proceeds from the well-known Interdependence Theory to argue that the Berlin-promoted two Nord Stream projects are loosening Russian-Ukrainian economic ties, and thereby ease conflict between the two post-Soviet republics. The peculiarities of Ukraine's surprisingly peaceful development during the first twenty years of its existence as an independent state are contrasted with the escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv in 2013-2014. The completion of the second string of the first Nord Stream pipeline in October 2012 is seen as a crucial development that untied the Kremlin's hand vis-à-vis Ukraine. The lowering of economic interdependenceas a result of a diversion of Siberian gas exports to the new Baltic Sea pipeline led to a territorial conflict between Ukraine and Russia reminiscent of developments that had earlier taken place in Moldova and Georgia.