Zambia's Social Policy Response to Covid-19: Protecting the Poorest or Political Survival?

Abstract

Zambia's social policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic is unfolding against a background of severe financial challenges, a squeezed social sector and limited state capacity. There are also concerns about the upcoming general election in August 2021, which is already beginning to shape policy and spending decisions. Much of Zambia’s social policy response has focused on the formal sector, despite the country’s large informal sector, high unemployment rate and food insecurity across urban and rural areas. A Covid-19 emergency cash transfer (ECT) has been the most significant social policy intervention to help the poorest households to cope with the effects of the pandemic. However, this programme has been largely driven and funded by international donors, while the government has increased payments to agricultural subsidies and empowerment funds. Claims that the ruling party is using the ECT for election rigging suggests that there is some political interest in this scheme, but other more powerful constituencies - particularly farmers and young people - continue to be prioritised. This reflects the political dynamics of Zambia's social protection response more broadly, with domestic incentives shaping the level of government support and funding directed at various programmes.