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A predictive test of voters' economic benchmarking: the 2013 German Bundestag election
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of el... mehr
Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ('benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe - France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Bundestagswahl; Wahlverhalten; Wahlergebnis; wirtschaftliche Faktoren; Benchmarking; Prognose; Frankreich; Großbritannien; Italien; internationaler Vergleich; Wahlforschung
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter
Wahl zum 18. Deutschen Bundestag (2013-09-22); Politische Prognose; Prognoseverfahren; Political forecasting; Forecast procedures
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2016
Seitenangabe
S. 106-130
Zeitschriftentitel
German Politics, 25 (2016) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531
ISSN
1743-8993
Status
Preprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung