The Standoff over Constitutional Reform in Belarus Leaves the EU and Russia on Opposite Sides of the Barricades

Abstract

Belarus’s long-term ruler Lukashenka and the opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya (in line with the Coordination Council) pursue irreconcilable goals. Lukashenka aims to divert attention away from the recent fraudulent election and wants to wear down and split the opposition by means of a lengthy constitutional amendment process. Its only goal: to bolster his grip on power. By contrast, the opposition seeks free and fair elections first before an open debate on the constitution could eventually be launched. The EU and Russia officially state that a solution to the conflict should be achieved by Belarusians themselves. But the EU supports Tsikhanouskaya’s call for new elections and does not recognize Lukashenka as a legitimate president, while Russia endorsed Lukashenka’s constitutional reform as a means to overcome the current crisis. What started as a purely internal standoff over the fraudulent election and state repression is now a de facto geopolitical conflict.