The Crisis in Idlib: Turkey Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Abstract

The ceasefire agreement for Idlib signed between Russia and Turkey on March 5th is a step towards de-escalation. Yet, it remains doubtful whether this can translate into more than just providing short-term relief. To secure EU support in Idlib, Turkey has sought to increase pressure on European countries by "opening" its borders for refugees to travel on to the EU. While Ankara's instrumentalization of refugees is appalling, the humanitarian situation requires European support. Hence, the EU should coordinate with the US to increase pressure on Russia to facilitate a safe zone in northern Idlib in addition to the further humanitarian assistance the EU has pledged. To respond to the immediate pressure on its borders, the EU will have little choice but to negotiate a new deal building on the 2016 EU-Turkey refugee agreement, given the continuing disagreement on asylum and migration policy among EU member states.