Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Measures: Portfolio and Allocation Analysis

Abstract

This portfolio and allocation analysis is the first report of the DEval evaluation on climate change adaptation measures. The subject of the study is the German Federal Government's international climate policy commitment in the field of climate change adaptation. This report focuses on the relevance and coherence of the German adaptation portfolio. The methodological approach of the evaluation is essentially based on a macro-quantitative portfolio and allocation analysis. The evaluation combines methods of statistical data analysis with a document study and qualitative interviews. The portfolio and allocation analysis arrives at the following key findings: The objectives of the Federal Government's international commitment to climate policy are consistent with relevant strategic frameworks and (global) agendas. Germany sets relevant thematic priorities through the work of several ministries and is clearly oriented towards international priorities. A more nuanced picture emerges with regard to the actual allocation of funds: the more vulnerable to climate change a country is, the more likely it is to receive funds from Germany for adaptation measures. Germany is more likely to make commitments to countries with low adaptive capacity. However, the level of vulnerability has no effect on the level of commitments. In addition, Germany is more likely to commit a higher level of funds, and go to countries where many other donors are already active in the field of climate change adaptation, thus contributing to donor fragmentation. Contrary to the Federal Government's claims, the Small Island Developing States, which are often severely affected by the consequences of climate change, benefit less commonly and to a lesser extent from German adaptation commitments than other countries. In the overall evaluation, the German adaptation portfolio therefore only partially conforms to its own as well as international standards with regard to the relevance and coherence of the Federal Government's international climate policy commitment.