Volltext herunterladen
(1.312 MB)
Zitationshinweis
Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):
https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-62445-8
Export für Ihre Literaturverwaltung
Three scenarios for the development of the Sisi regime in Egypt: development dictatorship, Mubarak 2.0, or rapid collapse?
Drei Szenarien zur Entwicklung des Sisi-Regimes in Ägypten: Entwicklungsdiktatur, Mubarak 2.0 oder schneller Zusammenbruch?
[Stellungnahme]
Körperschaftlicher Herausgeber
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract A referendum on a constitutional amendment is to be held in Egypt at the beginning of May, which would enable President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi to continue governing after the end of his current term. In the face of massive repression, approval seems certain. This would largely complete the power consol... mehr
A referendum on a constitutional amendment is to be held in Egypt at the beginning of May, which would enable President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi to continue governing after the end of his current term. In the face of massive repression, approval seems certain. This would largely complete the power consolidation of the Sisi-regime, which emerged from the military coup of July 2013. But how will this regime develop in the future? Possible scenarios are a successful development dictatorship, decades of political and economic stagnation, as under Hosni Mubarak, or imminent failure. While a development dictatorship is unrealistic due to a lack of willingness to reform, the other two scenarios entail major risks for Germany and its European partners. In the future, they should therefore link new budgetary assistance to improvements in human and civil rights, focus on humanitarian crisis prevention in line with the "do no harm" approach, and expand contacts with representatives of the Egyptian opposition outside of Egypt. (Autorenreferat)... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Protestbewegung; Erfolg-Misserfolg; Diktatur; Entwicklungspolitik; Nordafrika; Herrschaft; Ägypten; Widerstand; sozioökonomische Entwicklung; Szenario; Revolution; Stagnation; politische Entwicklung; autoritäres System; Nahost
Klassifikation
Staat, staatliche Organisationsformen
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter
Sīsī, 'Abd-al-Fattāḥ as-; Umsturzbestrebungen/Umsturz
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2019
Erscheinungsort
Berlin
Seitenangabe
4 S.
Schriftenreihe
SWP Comment, 18/2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2019C18
ISSN
1861-1761
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung