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Testing Persistence of Cohort Effects in the Epidemiology of Suicide: an Age-Period-Cohort Hysteresis Model
[journal article]
Abstract Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC- Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrend... view more
Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC- Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrended’ fluctuations) in suicide rates. The new APC-Hysteresis (APCH) model tests temporal stability of cohort effects. Analysing suicide rates in 25 WHO countries (periods 1970–74 to 2005–09; ages 20–24 to 70–79) with the APCD method, we find that country-specific birth cohort membership plays an important role in suicide rates. Among 25 countries, we detect 12 nations that show deep contrasts among cohort-specific suicide rates including Italy, Australia and the United States. The APCH method shows that cohort fluctuations are not stable across the life course but decline in Spain, France and Australia, whereas they remain stable in Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. We discuss the Spanish case with elevated suicide mortality of cohorts born 1965–1975 which declines with age, and the opposite case of the United States, where the identified cohort effects of those born around 1960 increase smoothly, but statistically significant across the life course.... view less
Keywords
cohort analysis; AIDS; quantity; historical development; epidemiology; United States of America; international comparison; non-linear model; suicide; mortality; socioeconomic factors; drug dependence; Spain; persistence
Classification
Methods and Techniques of Data Collection and Data Analysis, Statistical Methods, Computer Methods
Social Problems
Free Keywords
APC-Detrended; APCD; APC-Hysteresis; APCH
Document language
English
Publication Year
2016
Page/Pages
p. 1-20
Journal
PLOS ONE, 11 (2016) 7
ISSN
1932-6203
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed