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Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making
Unsicherheiten in der Klimavorhersage als Herausforderung für die Entscheidungstheorie
[journal article]
Abstract Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical de... view more
Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power.... view less
Keywords
climate protection; ethics of responsibility; climate change; prognosis; model; environmental factors; justice; environmental policy; Intergenerational relations; decision making; decision theory
Classification
Ecology, Environment
Free Keywords
precautionary principle
Document language
English
Publication Year
2009
Page/Pages
p. 94-99
Journal
Intergenerational Justice Review (2009) 3
Issue topic
Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice
DOI
https://doi.org/10.24357/igjr.3.3.492
ISSN
2190-6335
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed