The Denuclearisation of North Korea: From Maximum Demands to Arms Control

Abstract

During its 2019/2020 term as a member of the UN Security Council, Germany aims to generate impetus for disarmament and arms control. A particular challenge in this regard is presented by North Korea's development of its nuclear and missile arsenals. In 2017, Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump escalated the conflict surrounding this issue. Then in 2018, summit meetings between Washington and Pyongyang and between the two Koreas opened up the possibility of future cooperation. However, the US and North Korean positions on denuclearisation remain far apart. The summits in 2018 led to a decrease in tensions. Diplomacy, rather than the threatening gestures of 2017, was the focus. This was a significant step forward. North Korea halted its nuclear and missile tests, and the USA suspended its military exercises with South Korea. However, North Korea does not want to comply with the demand for rapid and complete denuclearisation. Without substantial advances regarding the nuclear question, the sanctions on North Korea will remain in place. The opportunities for inter-Korean cooperation will also remain limited. The summit agreement between Kim and Trump from June 2018 and the second summit planned for the end of February 2019 offer a chance to achieve normal bilateral relations, a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, and the curbing of the nuclear threat in the medium term. It would now make sense to agree on clear interim steps related to stopping the production of nuclear fissile material and its use in weapons technology, and the dismantling of the North Korean missile arsenal. In return, suitable corresponding steps should be offered. The complete dismantling of North Korea's nuclear arsenal should remain the goal, but is unrealistic in the short term. The German government should use its seat on the UN Security Council to push for pragmatic interim steps, as these offer the best chance of increasing security in Korea and the region. In line with German priorities, the focus should now be on effective disarmament and arms-control measures.