Elecciones para Gobernador 2017: una aproximación comparativa

Abstract

The particular review of an specific election in a federative state of Mexico often fails to give precision on the magnitude of the changes that occurred within the set of processes, emphasizing the locally recorded returns, without appreciating its relation with the observed behaviors in the set. To cover this perspective, the objective of this work is to look for a quantitative perspective of the various processes of election of the Governor that were celebrated in June of 2017, taking in several occasions like reference a year before in the twelve elections for Governor The points which are addressed in this document are: two elements intrinsic to the elections themselves and which have a static character, which are the comparison between the levels of participation-abstention in the different states and an analysis of the competitiveness registered in these elections according to the indicators of concentration-fragmentation of voting that are conventionally used in the political literature. In addition, an indicator of inter-electoral dynamics is used, comparing levels of volatility between the most recent and immediate elections. Everything with the intention of have elements that allow to reflect on the similarities and differences between different processes and to address the generic and differentiated factors that favor the observed results, comparing them with those that occurred before. The accumulation of experiences throughout 2016 and 2017 in practically half of the federal states of the country and the elaboration of homogeneous analyzes on all these processes (De la Peña, 2017: passim) allows us to approach an analysis that accounts for the factors for which the condition of alternation might depend, necessarily approximated by practical reasons through a continuous variable: the (dis) advantage of the holder in the race with respect to other variables that in principle and theoretically must explain their value and the occurrence of a change in who holds the government. This work has an additional purpose: to complement and update the reading on the same subject previously made for the book Elections under new rules Changes and continuities in the 2016 local elections, which are part of the work logic of the group that emerged within the Mexican Society of Electoral Studies to follow up the local electoral processes in the country and now, will give a Seminar on Processes Electoral Compared as part of the activities of another working group of the same organization.