Ten Things to Watch in Africa in 2018

Abstract

The G20 Africa Partnership Conference and the AU–EU Summit, as well as the headlines related to African migrants in North Africa, put the African continent into the spotlight last year. Popular protests challenged various autocratic rulers, and the former liberation movements of Southern Africa faced their own struggles. These ambiguities in the continent's political, economic, and social development will remain apparent in events that we deem critical for the region in 2018. The reform of the African Union (AU) will be piecemeal rather than profound. Many AU member states will resist AU chairman Paul Kagame's push for policy implementation and the strengthening of the AU Commission. The year 2018 is unlikely to be a good one for democracy in Africa. The scheduled elections are unlikely to provide more democratic space. They will take place in fragile contexts, including Mali and South Sudan, or in hybrid and authoritarian settings. Authoritarian tendencies will continue to be evident in further attempts to abolish presidential term limits in several countries. South Africa and Nigeria will be preparing for national elections in 2019. In Nigeria, the run-up to the elections might incite violent conflict and create political stasis, while South Africa's new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, needs to fight corruption and revive the economy. The Central African Republic (CAR) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will remain conflict hotspots. Radical Islamist groups remain particularly active in Mali, Somalia, and Nigeria. The weakening of these groups may increase their recourse to terrorist tactics. The future relationship between Europe and Africa will be shaped by the post-Cotonou agreement. A bumpy start to formal negotiations is likely to lie ahead because of the Europeans' emphasis on the political sphere and the lack of an "African position." Key matters for many African governments are trade relationships, recent initiatives such as the Compact with Africa, and migration policies. Our selective account of "ten things to watch in Africa" is on balance sceptical about the continent's political prospects in 2018. This is despite ongoing socio-economic progress in many parts of Africa. Not all the dim prospects have to materialise if action is taken by African rulers and populations, as well as by Africa's partners - particularly the EU. Among the more daring options for European policymakers would be a renegotiation of the European-African trade deals and legal migration pathways under a post-Cotonou agreement.