Perceptions of changing power, dyadic rivalries and security dilemma mechanisms in the wider Black Sea area

Abstract

The NATO/EU countries and the Russian Federation have a common neighborhood in Eastern Europe, which includes the Black Sea region. This area could be defined as a "security complex", whose security architecture is made by the interaction of the various state and non-state actors, or as a geopolitical region. The riparian states are very heterogenous, they greatly differ in territory, population, economy and strategic affilitions. One important problem is that these countries - Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Georgia, Ukraine and Turkey, plus the nonriparian ones -the Republic of Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan- do not have the same strategic culture, or similar national interests, they do not perceive themselves, at the level of political and economic elites, as being part of the same area and having a common regional identity. No regional organisation plays the role of EU or NATO and this increases the insecurity perceptions among rival actors. Moscow wants to create a "buffer" area by putting pressure on the NATO/EU states to stop the enlargement process and proposes political and economical alternatives like the CSI Collective Security Treaty and the Eurasian Economic Union, while the West wants the Black Sea countries to remain NATO partners (via the PfP) and possible members (Ukraine and Georgia were promised NATO membership in April 2008 at the Bucharest Summit), and also economic/political partners for the EU via the Eastern Partnership and the free trade agreements. The lack of trust and even fear between Russia and the Western states generated, since 2014 (when Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia), accusations, provocative actions and arms building, economic sanctions, thus fostering a "security dilemma" mechanism which is to be explained not only by structural factors like systemic power polarity, predominance of offensive/defensive weapons, but also by psycho-cognitive perceptions of decision-makers. The fact that some states’ leaders perceive the balance of power in the Black Sea as being in a process of rapid change in economy, military, demographics may generate attempts to take profit of or close the windows of vulnerability, increasing the likelihood of regional military or "hybrid" conflicts.