A Case Study of Error in Survey Reports of Move Month Using the U.S. Postal Service Change of Address Records

Abstract

Correctly recalling where someone lived as of a particular date is critical to the accuracy of the once-a-decade U.S. decennial census. The data collection period for the 2010 Census occurred over the course of a few months: February to August, with some evaluation operations occurring up to 7 months after that. The assumption was that respondents could accurately remember moves and move dates on and around April 1st up to 11 months afterwards. We show how statistical analyses can be used to investigate the validity of this assumption by comparing self-reports and proxy-reports of the month of a move in a U.S. Census Bureau survey with an administrative records database from the U.S. Postal Service containing requests to forward mail filed in March and April of 2010. In our dataset, we observed that the length of time since the move affects memory error in reports of a move and the month of a move. Also affecting memory error of moves is whether the respondent is reporting for themselves or another person in the household . This case study is relevant to surveys as well as censuses because move dates and places of residence often serve as anchors to aid memory of other events in questionnaires.