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Voting after watching: the strategic role of election polls
[journal article]
Abstract The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first t... view more
The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
prognosis; voting behavior; self-fulfilling prophecy; electoral system; Romania; influence; election research; behavior; election; election result; presidential election; reporting; media
Classification
Public Opinion Research
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method
quantitative empirical
Document language
English
Publication Year
2012
Page/Pages
p. 210-221
Journal
European Review of Artistic Studies, 20 (2012) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/S1062798711000548
ISSN
1062-7987
Status
Published Version; peer reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
With the permission of the rights owner, this publication is under open access due to a (DFG-/German Research Foundation-funded) national or Alliance license.