The Future Geopolitical Patterns and the Balkan States: Prediction from the Perspective of Geopolitical Theory

Abstract

This paper provides a prediction of future geopolitical patterns related to the Balkan states, on the basis of assumptions offered by the Geopolitical Theory. In general, on the long-term, it is shown that the Balkan states are excluded from the possibility of acquiring cumulative advantages as preconditions for further expansion. As a result, their position in the structure of geopolitical relations gives them the character of internal states, which, if not subordinated to the expansive power, are driven by empirically confirmed patterns of confrontation and fragmentation into smaller units. However, the analysis showed that the EU can be provisionally defined as the expansive force in a given geopolitical context. Therefore, the ratio of the Balkans and the European Union demonstrates the ongoing process of expansion, so in the medium term the decrease or freeze of antagonisms, and fragmentation into smaller units that are characterized by internal states can be expected. Certainly, this trend is conditioned by the assumption that the EU has a relatively coherent geopolitical interests.