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Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we... mehr
In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we find that, in high liquidity betting markets, betting exchange odds have more predictive value than the corresponding bookmaker odds. To control for potential spillovers between the two markets, we repeat the analysis for cases where prices diverge significantly. Once again, exchange odds yield more valuable information concerning race outcomes than the bookmaker equivalents.... weniger
Klassifikation
Allgemeines, spezielle Theorien und "Schulen", Methoden, Entwicklung und Geschichte der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Freie Schlagwörter
betting exchanges; market efficiency; prediction
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2009
Seitenangabe
539–549 S.
Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71 (2009) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2009.03.016
Status
Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)