Forecasting the outcome of a national election: the influence of expertise, information, and political preferences

Andersson, Patric; Gschwend, Thomas; Meffert, Michael F.; Schmidt, Carsten

[conference paper]

dc.contributor.author	Andersson, Patric	de
dc.contributor.author	Gschwend, Thomas	de
dc.contributor.author	Meffert, Michael F.	de
dc.contributor.author	Schmidt, Carsten	de
dc.date.accessioned	2011-07-14T14:34:00Z	de
dc.date.accessioned	2012-08-29T22:43:58Z
dc.date.available	2012-08-29T22:43:58Z
dc.date.issued	2006	de
dc.identifier.uri	http://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/25772
dc.description.abstract	"Five days in advance of the 2005 German national election, political experts, voters, and novices were asked to predict the outcome of the election. In an experimental manipulation, half of the non-expert sample was provided with additional poll information in the form of a figure with trend lines. The results show that (1) experts were marginally more accurate than non-experts but highly overconfident in their predictions, that (2) access to pre-election poll information improved the forecasting ability of novices, and that (3) partisan preferences biased the forecasts of voters to a small degree (projection effect)." (author's abstract)	en
dc.language	en	de
dc.subject.ddc	Politikwissenschaft	de
dc.subject.ddc	Political science	en
dc.title	Forecasting the outcome of a national election: the influence of expertise, information, and political preferences	en
dc.identifier.url	http://www.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/gschwend/pdf/papers/ICA2006-Forecast.pdf	de
dc.publisher.country	DEU
dc.publisher.city	Mannheim	de
dc.subject.classoz	Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture	en
dc.subject.classoz	politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Bundesrepublik Deutschland	de
dc.subject.thesoz	prognosis	en
dc.subject.thesoz	voting behavior	en
dc.subject.thesoz	voter turnout	en
dc.subject.thesoz	knowledge	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Wahlbeteiligung	de
dc.subject.thesoz	voter	en
dc.subject.thesoz	preference	en
dc.subject.thesoz	election to the Bundestag	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Prognose	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Wahlverhalten	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Federal Republic of Germany	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Experte	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Wähler	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Wahlergebnis	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Bundestagswahl	de
dc.subject.thesoz	Präferenz	de
dc.subject.thesoz	election result	en
dc.subject.thesoz	expert	en
dc.subject.thesoz	Wissen	de
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-257728	de
dc.date.modified	2011-09-19T12:22:00Z	de
dc.rights.licence	Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung	de
dc.rights.licence	Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications	en
ssoar.greylit	t	de
ssoar.gesis.collection	SOLIS;ADIS	de
ssoar.contributor.institution	USB Köln	de
internal.status	3	de
internal.identifier.thesoz	10061173
internal.identifier.thesoz	10037571
internal.identifier.thesoz	10036432
internal.identifier.thesoz	10040137
internal.identifier.thesoz	10054152
internal.identifier.thesoz	10038845
internal.identifier.thesoz	10035168
internal.identifier.thesoz	10053248
internal.identifier.thesoz	10061867
internal.identifier.thesoz	10043021
dc.type.stock	monograph	de
dc.type.document	Konferenzbeitrag	de
dc.type.document	conference paper	en
dc.rights.copyright	f	de
dc.source.pageinfo	30
internal.identifier.classoz	10504
internal.identifier.document	16
internal.identifier.ddc	320
dc.description.pubstatus	Published Version	en
dc.description.pubstatus	Veröffentlichungsversion	de
internal.identifier.licence	3
internal.identifier.pubstatus	1
internal.check.abstractlanguageharmonizer	CERTAIN
internal.check.languageharmonizer	CERTAIN_RETAINED

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politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture

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