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Nonlinear Modeling of European Football Scores Using Support Vector Machines
[journal article]
Abstract This paper explores the linear and nonlinear forecastability of European
football match scores using IX2 and Asian Handicap odds data from the English
Premier league. To this end, we compare the performance of a Poisson count
regression to that of a nonparametric Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. ... view more
This paper explores the linear and nonlinear forecastability of European
football match scores using IX2 and Asian Handicap odds data from the English
Premier league. To this end, we compare the performance of a Poisson count
regression to that of a nonparametric Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Our
descriptive analysis of the odds and match outcomes indicate that these variables are
strongly interrelated in a nonlinear fashion. An interesting finding is that the size of
the Asian Handicap appears to be a significant predictor of both home and away
team scores. The modeling results show that while the SVM is only marginally
superior on the basis of statistical criteria, it manages to produce out-of-sample
forecasts with much higher economic significance.... view less
Classification
National Economy
Economic Sectors
Document language
English
Publication Year
2008
Page/Pages
p. 111-118
Journal
Applied Economics, 40 (2008) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701731546
ISSN
1466-4283
Status
Postprint; peer reviewed
Licence
PEER Licence Agreement (applicable only to documents from PEER project)