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%T A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts %A Österholm, Pär %J Applied Economics %N 12 %P 1557-1569 %V 40 %D 2008 %K forecasts; uncertainty; C32; C53; E47; E52 %= 2011-10-17T13:45:00Z %~ http://www.peerproject.eu/ %> https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-240141 %X Inflation forecast uncertainty is of importance for a wide range of agents in the economy, central banks in particular. Ways to describe and account for this uncertainty in a consistent manner have received increasing attention of late, in part due to the growing number of inflation-targeting central banks. This paper develops a large structural VAR for the Swedish economy and estimates it in a Bayesian framework. The methodology permits not only structural interpretation and analysis but offers a natural way to formalise forecast uncertainty, as the posterior predictive density from the model has the interpretation of a fan chart. %C USA %G en %9 journal article %W GESIS - http://www.gesis.org %~ SSOAR - http://www.ssoar.info