`Misunderestimating' Chronic Poverty?

Abstract

This article examines the issue of chronic (i.e. long-term) poverty in developing countries. It presents a method for estimating chronic poverty using cross-sectional data and suggests that researchers need not rely solely on longitudinal or panel data. As such data are unavailable for most developing countries, the method outlined here provides an opportunity to expand our understanding of the distribution and pattern of chronic poverty in many more countries. The article also shows how the methods used to estimate the number of chronically poor in developing countries in the 2005 Chronic Poverty Report contain errors that render them serious underestimates. The problem of chronic poverty is therefore considerably more pressing and more widespread than is currently thought.