Climate change and planning for the military

Abstract

A core debate about the consequences of climate change concerns its security-related aspects. Elements of that debate include the expected extent of climate as well as definitions of security. Official documents on national security and defense planning are investigated with respect to these two elements of debate. A content analysis of relevant documents from 38 countries reveals a diverse response by national security establishments to the challenges presented by climate change, which also changes over time. Seven potential roles for armed forces in response to climate change are identified and quantified for the selected documents. A predominant expectation is a greater demand for disaster relief by armed forces. However, there are also governments which expect an increase in traditional security threats, as well as governments who do not foresee any security challenge resulting from climate change.