Stratified adaptation? Education and fertility patterns of the descendants of immigrants in Germany

Abstract

Fertility patterns vary frequently between immigrant groups and the majority population. Although many immigrant groups and their descendants have - on average - lower educational levels than non-migrants, the role of education in fertility patterns among immigrants has received limited attention. Given the significant role of educational choices in fertility decisions, understanding heterogeneous adaptation processes over educational groups is crucial for addressing demographic and social integration challenges. This study investigates how educational differences are associated with the fertility of the descendants of immigrants. Using German microcensus data from 2009, 2013 and 2017, we estimate discrete-time event-history models of first and second births among immigrants from various regions of origin and with different migration experiences (the so-called 1.5 and second generation), compared to non-migrant Germans. First generation immigrants are another comparison group. Our analyses reveal two patterns of stratified adaptation: We find convergence in fertility patterns among highly-educated immigrants, particularly those of Turkish and Southern European descent, while immigrants from Eastern Europe have lower first and second birth probabilities compared to non-migrants. Our results highlight the adaptation processes across educational groups and regions of origin, contributing to our understanding of how immigrants navigate the cultural and socio-economic dynamics of their destination countries.