Generational change in party support in Germany: The decline of the Volksparteien, the rise of the Greens, and the transformation of the education divide

Abstract

Motivated by the eroding support for the old "Volksparteien" CDU/CSU and SPD, especially among younger voters, this study conducts an age-period-cohort analysis of vote choices in all 20 German federal elections, from 1949 to 2021. I study both generational differences in levels of party support and the changing effect of education on voting. The results, first, point to the importance of generational replacement in understanding party's shifting fortunes, with the CDU/CSU and the SPD being weaker in more recent cohorts and the Greens stronger. Second, while high education divides voters of the old right (CDU/CSU and especially FDP) and left (SPD) in earlier cohorts, it divides voters of the new-left Greens and the radical-right AfD in more recent cohorts. This study enhances our understanding of the changing patterns of party support in the German electorate and, as a broader lesson, shows how electoral realignment is driven by generational replacement.