Making Russia Great Again? Vladimir Putin's Changing Sources of Legitimacy 2000-2024

Abstract

This article analyses the changing sources of President Vladimir Putin's legitimacy during his quarter century at the apex of power in Russia. To reveal the shifting underpinnings of Putin's legitimacy, I examine the central themes of his five presidential election campaigns, from March 2000 to March 2024. Public opinion data is used to assess the relationship between these campaign themes and the priorities of Russian voters, as legitimacy rests on shared values between ruler and ruled. I argue that the main sources of Putin's legitimacy have shifted during his long tenure, especially since his 2012 return to the presidency, after four years as prime minister. Putin first won the Russian presidency by positioning himself as a soft nationalist reformer, intent on integrating with the West, and wrestling wealth from Russia's oligarchs. Twelve years later, Putin turned his ire on international enemies, claiming the role of Russia's champion against a hostile West and fifth column within - themes pursued with greater vigour following Russia's incursions in Ukraine since 2014. In addition, Putin has doubled down on conservative appeals, including support for the Orthodox Church and anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric. Appropriation of Russia's role in WW2 has also been a source of legitimacy throughout Putin's leadership, but one put to different uses over time. Putin's legitimacy has been further bolstered by his stewardship of Russia's economy, which has remained relatively stable, even in the face of sanctions, since 2014. I conclude that Putin's longevity in office rests not only on increasing state repression, but also on his success in reorientating Russian social values to suit his changing political needs.