Data-driven campaigning in data-dense small multiparty systems: a party-level analysis

Abstract

This study examines data-driven campaign (DDC) practices in Sweden. We are interested in understanding if and why political parties in Sweden adopt (or not) data-driven campaign methods, and the differences between them. Since this is a comparison of domestic parties, we test the importance of four party-level factors: resources, structure, attitudes toward data use and ideology using extensive interviews with key campaign managers in Sweden during the 2022 election year. Our results show that the differences among the eight parties studied are rather small, and that systemic factors are more important than party variables to explain the adoption of data-driven approaches. Zooming in on these finer differences we distinguish between top DDC adopters (Social Democrats, Center and Conservatives) and a lower tier with lower levels of DDC implementation. To explain the differences between the two tiers, we find that resources and attitudes to data are important, but only when taken together. Party structure and ideology do not affect the likelihood of a Swedish party using data analytics. Instead, we suggest party type (catch-all vs niche) as a potentially more useful party-level factor in explaining variation in DDC adoption.