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Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy
[journal article]
Abstract In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates u... view more
In this paper, we present a methodology of GDP growth rate decomposition adapted for the Russian economy. We calculated the indicators for structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia. We estimated the structural, foreign trade and cyclical components of GDP growth rates under various macroeconomic scenarios for the period from 2018 through 2024. The study shows that a significant contribution to growth rates for the period 2018 through 2024 will be made by the sum of the business cycle and random shock component, which, combined with the revitalization of investments in 2017, may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. In the scenarios reviewed, the contribution from the foreign trade component will be negative from 2018 to 2024. The calculations indicate further stagnation of structural growth rates in the Russian economy from 2018 to 2024 at the level of approximately 1.5 p.p. in all of the basic macroeconomic scenarios reviewed. This points to the inexpediency in postponing structural reforms to create conditions for Russia’s economy to achieve growth rates that exceed world averages.... view less
Keywords
economic growth; business cycle; terms of trade; Russia
Classification
National Economy
Free Keywords
total factor productivity; NAWRU
Document language
English
Publication Year
2018
Page/Pages
p. 305-327
Journal
Russian Journal of Economics, 4 (2018) 4
ISSN
2618-7213
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0