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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.005
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Russian devaluation in 2014-2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?
[journal article]
Abstract Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this crea... view more
Falling oil prices are leading to a reduction in domestic demand and lowering of the ruble exchange rate, thus enhancing the price competitiveness of Russian producers and stimulating the supply side of the economy (especially in foreign markets unaffected by the recession). Indeed, all of this create the possibility of offsetting the decline in domestic demand to a varying degree through increased net exports. However, the present study shows that, taking into account all of the structural problems of the Russian economy, the devaluation of the ruble may lead to a more severe recession than anticipated by most experts in their estimates, judging by average consensus forecasts (as of the end of September 2015).... view less
Keywords
devaluation; rate of exchange; economic policy; economic development (on national level); demand development; Russia
Classification
Political Economy
Free Keywords
real exchange rate; Marshall-Lerner condition; resource curse
Document language
English
Publication Year
2015
Page/Pages
p. 217-239
Journal
Russian Journal of Economics, 1 (2015) 3
ISSN
2618-7213
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0