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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2016.02.001
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Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimat... mehr
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Geldpolitik; Inflation; Konjunkturzyklus; Brasilien; Chile; Kolumbien; Mexiko; Peru; Lateinamerika
Freie Schlagwörter
output gap; policy rule; data revisions; real-time; uncertainty; inflation target
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2015
Seitenangabe
S. 329-358
Zeitschriftentitel
Russian Journal of Economics, 1 (2015) 4
ISSN
2618-7213
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Nicht kommerz., Keine Bearbeitung 4.0