Happy winners, sore partisans? Political trust, partisanship, and the populist assault on electoral integrity in Mexico

Abstract

Winning elections usually make partisan voters more politically satisfied and confident. However, if they voted for a president that actively undermines the legitimacy of democratic institutions, they will be compelled to accommodate their views and update their judgment on a selective basis. They will support the regime's performance and yet distrust the institutions denounced by the government. This claim is tested using data from a representative survey conducted in Mexico. In this country, the president is a populist leader who consistently denounces all constraints on the executive. In particular, the president frequently undermines the institutions safeguarding free and fair elections. The analysis reveals that the gap in political trust reflects the opposite reactions from partisan winners and losers to the executive's antagonizing behavior. Voters supporting the winning party are more satisfied with democracy. However, they are less likely to trust the integrity of elections than the partisan losers.