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Future subnational population change in Germany: The role of internal and international migration
[working paper]
Corporate Editor
Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BIB)
Abstract Population change in Germany at the sub-national level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and overall internal migration patterns, namely between urbanization, suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Official population projections at the county level only consist of ... view more
Population change in Germany at the sub-national level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and overall internal migration patterns, namely between urbanization, suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Official population projections at the county level only consist of one scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort-component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing a range of nine international and internal migration scenarios. Our results highlight the variability in possible population change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. According to our scenarios, the total projected population of Germany is expected to range between 74.25 to 86.84 million people. There are considerable differences in expected population change both spatially (e.g. between urban and rural areas) and concerning county population age structure, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration as well as the direction of internal migratory patterns. Our results highlight the large role internal and international migration patterns will play in future population development in Germany at the county level. We also discuss what our results and the uncertainty of future population change at the regional level mean for local policy making and planning.... view less
Keywords
Federal Republic of Germany; population development; population; migration; regional factors; demographic factors
Classification
Population Studies, Sociology of Population
Migration, Sociology of Migration
Free Keywords
population projections; internal migration; international migration; sub-regional population development
Document language
English
Publication Year
2024
City
Wiesbaden
Page/Pages
33 p.
Series
BiB Working Paper, 3-2024
ISSN
2196-9574
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications