Volltext herunterladen
(360.1 KB)
Zitationshinweis
Bitte beziehen Sie sich beim Zitieren dieses Dokumentes immer auf folgenden Persistent Identifier (PID):
https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-91883-7
Export für Ihre Literaturverwaltung
Coalition inclusion probabilities: a party-strategic measure for predicting policy and politics
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Policy in coalition governments (a) depends on negotiations between parties that (b) continue between elections. No extant means of predicting policy - bargaining power indices, vote shares, seat shares, polling, veto players or measures of electoral competitiveness - recognizes both of these facts.... mehr
Policy in coalition governments (a) depends on negotiations between parties that (b) continue between elections. No extant means of predicting policy - bargaining power indices, vote shares, seat shares, polling, veto players or measures of electoral competitiveness - recognizes both of these facts. We conceptualize, estimate and validate the first dynamic measure of parties' bargaining leverage intended to predict policy and politics. We argue that those parties with the greatest leverage in policy negotiations are those with the highest probability of participating in an alternative government, were one to form. Combining a large set of political polls and an empirical coalition formation model developed with out-of-sample testing, we estimate coalition inclusion probabilities for parties in a sample of 21 parliamentary democracies at a monthly frequency over four decades. Applications to government spending and to the stringency of environmental policy show leverage from coalition inclusion probabilities to be strongly predictive while the primary alternatives - vote shares, seat shares and polls - are not.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
ISSP; Koalition; Repräsentation; Partei; politische Verhandlung; Koalitionspolitik; politischer Einfluss; Demokratie
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter
coalition bargaining; coalition leverage; policy-making; ISSP 1993; ISSP 2000; ISSP 2010
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2023
Seitenangabe
S. 328-346
Zeitschriftentitel
Political Science Research and Methods (PSRM), 11 (2023) 2
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.75
ISSN
2049-8489
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)