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Russia's Economy: Between a Crash and a Hard Landing
[journal article]
Abstract Based on macro-level data, most analysts forecasting Russia's economic development following the introduction of new large-scale sanctions expect a 10-12% drop in GDP, 20-25% inflation, and an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 7-8% by the end of this year. This article argues that in the context... view more
Based on macro-level data, most analysts forecasting Russia's economic development following the introduction of new large-scale sanctions expect a 10-12% drop in GDP, 20-25% inflation, and an increase in unemployment from 4.4% to 7-8% by the end of this year. This article argues that in the context of a severe economic shock, micro-data and comparison with similar cases offer a better guide to future developments than macro-data. They point to a much sharper decline in economic activity than is currently being forecasted.... view less
Classification
Political Economy
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
Page/Pages
p. 7-9
Journal
Russian Analytical Digest (2022) 283
Issue topic
Political and Economic Consequences of Russia's War against Ukraine
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000542143
ISSN
1863-0421
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0