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Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey
[Stellungnahme]
Körperschaftlicher Herausgeber
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the... mehr
Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the economic downturn and rifts in his ruling party, this will be the first election in which Erdoğan is not the clear favourite. Six opposition parties of different ideological origins have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate to stand against Erdoğan and to offer a common platform for restoring parliamentary democracy. Although the opposition alliance has reasonable chances of defeating Erdoğan's ruling bloc, their victory would not guarantee a smooth process of transition to parliamentary democracy. If the opposition can defeat Erdoğan, the new government would need to undertake the arduous tasks of establishing a meritocratic bureaucracy, restructuring Turkey's diplomatic course and economic policy, and switching back to parliamentary rule. Due to the opposition alliance's diverse composition, accomplishing these goals may be as difficult as winning the elections.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Türkei; Parlamentswahl; Präsidentschaftswahl; Staatsoberhaupt; Opposition; Wahlergebnis; Szenario; Regierungswechsel; Kandidatur; Regierungsbildung; Außenpolitik; Migrationspolitik; Reformpolitik
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter
Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip; Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Türkiye); Wahlbündnis; Oppositionspartei; Oppositionsführer; Entwicklungsperspektive und -tendenz; Wahlfälschungen/Wahlbetrug; Präsidiales Regierungssystem; Wirtschaftskrise; Außenpolitische Neuorientierung; Flüchtlinge; Syrer; Syrien; Politische Reformen; Öffentlicher Dienst; EU-/EG-Länder; Europäische Union; Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Türkiye); Halkların Demokratik Partisi (Türkiye)
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2022
Erscheinungsort
Berlin
Seitenangabe
8 S.
Schriftenreihe
SWP Comment, 55/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C55
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung