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Failing to deter Russia's war against Ukraine: the role of misperceptions
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south. Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful ... view more
Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south. Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strategies to stop Russia's aggression. It would also allow for adjusting future policies of deterrence against Russia. The EU and NATO should consider their misperceptions about Russia that undermined their ability to politically and militarily discourage Russia's aggression. They also should consider what actions have fuelled Russia's misperceptions about the West and emboldened the Kremlin to launch its military invasion of Ukraine. (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
Russia; Ukraine; war; deterrence; NATO; EU; foreign policy; conflict management
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Bilateraler internationaler Konflikt; Aggression (militärisch); Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg; Kriegsverhütung; Abschreckungsstrategie; Fehleinschätzung/Fehlperzeption; Kriegsverlauf; Internationale Konfliktverhandlungen
Document language
English
Publication Year
2022
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
8 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 33/2022
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2022C33
ISSN
2747-5107
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications