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What makes voters turn out: the effects of polls and beliefs
[working paper]
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Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH
Abstract We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on cost... view more
We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.... view less
Keywords
strategy; election; survey research; laboratory experiment; voting
Free Keywords
C92; Collective Choice; D02; D72; Polls; Strategic Voting
Document language
English
Publication Year
2016
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
40 p.
Series
Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Markt und Entscheidung, Abteilung Verhalten auf Märkten, SP II 2016-206
Handle
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146628
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications