Strategic rivalry between United States and China: causes, tragectories, and implications for Europe

Abstract

Rivalry between the United States and China has become a paradigm of international relations over the past two years. It shapes both strategic debates and real political, military and economic dynamics. The dimensions of Sino-American competition over power and status in­clude growing threat perceptions and an increasingly important political/ ideological component. The US-China trade conflict is politically instrumental and closely bound up with the development of the world order. The crux of the technological dimension is not who sets the standards, but geopolitical power projection through "technopolitical spheres of influence". The development and use of technologies thus become part of a systemic competition. Through their respective leadership styles, Presidents Trump and Xi foment bilateral conflicts and - each in their own way - damage international rules and institutions. The Sino-American rivalry also undermines multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organisation. While Washington has withdrawn from a number of multilateral institutions, Beijing is expanding its influence in contexts like the United Nations. Europe needs to escape the bipolar logic that demands it choose between the American and Chinese economic/technological spheres. The European Union must develop a China policy for its drive towards sovereignty (stra­tegic autonomy). That requires a "supranational geopolitics".