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Who were the voters behind the Schulz effect? An analysis of voter trajectories in the run-up to the 2017 German federal election
[collection article]
Abstract In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-... view more
In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-wave panel survey, this analysis examines the voting trajectories of eight thousand German citizens over the course of one year in order to investigate the processes underlying the so called ‘Schulz effect’. The voter trajectories show that the surge and decline of public support for the SPD was accompanied by some reshuffling in the composition of its electorate. Moreover, different explanations of the party’s swaying in the polls are tested, showing that the SPD achieved the activation of dormant party identifiers but attracted and then lost other voters with diverse characteristics and policy preferences.... view less
Keywords
Federal Republic of Germany; election to the Bundestag; election research; Social Democratic Party of Germany; candidacy; Federal Chancellor; en: floating voter oder swing voter?; election campaign; public opinion; political support; party politics
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Free Keywords
Bundestagswahl; Wählerwanderung; voting behavior; federal elections; German Longitudinal Election Study; GLES; vote switching; campaign effects
Collection Title
Die Bundestagswahl 2017: Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung
Editor
Korte, Karl-Rudolf; Schoofs, Jan
Document language
English
Publication Year
2019
Publisher
Springer
City
Wiesbaden
Page/Pages
p. 47-62
ISBN
978-3-658-25049-2
Status
Preprint; peer reviewed
Licence
Creative Commons - Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0