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Who were the voters behind the Schulz effect? An analysis of voter trajectories in the run-up to the 2017 German federal election
[Sammelwerksbeitrag]
Abstract In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-... mehr
In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-wave panel survey, this analysis examines the voting trajectories of eight thousand German citizens over the course of one year in order to investigate the processes underlying the so called ‘Schulz effect’. The voter trajectories show that the surge and decline of public support for the SPD was accompanied by some reshuffling in the composition of its electorate. Moreover, different explanations of the party’s swaying in the polls are tested, showing that the SPD achieved the activation of dormant party identifiers but attracted and then lost other voters with diverse characteristics and policy preferences.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Bundestagswahl; Wahlforschung; SPD; Kandidatur; Bundeskanzler; Wechselwähler; Wahlkampf; öffentliche Meinung; politische Unterstützung; Parteipolitik
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Freie Schlagwörter
Bundestagswahl; Wählerwanderung; voting behavior; federal elections; German Longitudinal Election Study; GLES; vote switching; campaign effects
Titel Sammelwerk, Herausgeber- oder Konferenzband
Die Bundestagswahl 2017: Analysen der Wahl-, Parteien-, Kommunikations- und Regierungsforschung
Herausgeber
Korte, Karl-Rudolf; Schoofs, Jan
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2019
Verlag
Springer
Erscheinungsort
Wiesbaden
Seitenangabe
S. 47-62
ISBN
978-3-658-25049-2
Status
Preprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
Creative Commons - Namensnennung, Nicht-kommerz., Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen 4.0