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Epistemic Uncertainties in Climate Predictions: A Challenge for Practical Decision Making
Unsicherheiten in der Klimavorhersage als Herausforderung für die Entscheidungstheorie
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical de... mehr
Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
Klimaschutz; Verantwortungsethik; Klimawandel; Prognose; Modell; Umweltfaktoren; Gerechtigkeit; Umweltpolitik; Generationenverhältnis; Entscheidungsfindung; Entscheidungstheorie
Klassifikation
Ökologie und Umwelt
Freie Schlagwörter
precautionary principle
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2009
Seitenangabe
S. 94-99
Zeitschriftentitel
Intergenerational Justice Review (2009) 3
Heftthema
Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice
DOI
https://doi.org/10.24357/igjr.3.3.492
ISSN
2190-6335
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)