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Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles
[Sammelwerksbeitrag]
Dieser Sammelwerksbeitrag gehört zu folgendem Sammelwerk:
Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook
Abstract Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–
11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can... mehr
Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–
11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion, it can significantly clarify both the reasons of alternation of upswing and downswing phases in K-waves and the reasons of relative stability of the length of these waves. It also can provide the certain means for forecasting. The authors show that adjacent 2–4 medium cycles form the system the important characteristic
of which is the dynamics of economic trend. The latter can be upswing (active) or downswing (depressive). The mechanisms of formation of such medium-term trends and changing tendencies are explained. The presence of such clusters of medium cycles (general duration of which is 20–30 years) determines to a large degree the long-wave dynamics and the characteristics of its timing.
Thus, not medium-term J-cycles depend on the character of K-wave phase as Kondratieff supposed, but the character of the cluster of J-cycles determines significantly the character of K-wave phases.... weniger
Klassifikation
Volkswirtschaftstheorie
Freie Schlagwörter
medium-term cycles;Juglar cycles; long cycles of Kondratieff; long waves; downswing phase
Titel Sammelwerk, Herausgeber- oder Konferenzband
Kondratieff Waves: Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff; Yearbook
Herausgeber
Grinin, Leonid; Devezas, Tessaleno C.; Korotayev, Andrey
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2014
Verlag
Uchitel Publishing House
Erscheinungsort
Volgograd
Seitenangabe
S. 25-95
ISBN
978-5-7057-4282-0
Status
Veröffentlichungsversion; begutachtet (peer reviewed)