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War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits
[Zeitschriftenartikel]
Abstract This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, ... mehr
This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other.... weniger
Thesaurusschlagwörter
internationaler Konflikt; Staatsoberhaupt; Präsident; Präsidentschaftswahl; Innenpolitik; Macht; politische Führung; Machtsicherung; internationale Beziehungen
Klassifikation
politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur
Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik
Methode
empirisch
Freie Schlagwörter
term limits; diversionary war
Sprache Dokument
Englisch
Publikationsjahr
2013
Seitenangabe
S. 1-27
Zeitschriftentitel
Journal of Conflict Resolution (2013)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002713478561
ISSN
0022-0027
Status
Postprint; begutachtet (peer reviewed)
Lizenz
Deposit Licence - Keine Weiterverbreitung, keine Bearbeitung
Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG-geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.