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Institutional incentives for strategic voting and party system change in Portugal
[journal article]
Abstract "Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide an evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. ... view more
"Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide an evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. Employing district-level data from 1975-2002 I estimate that a party, who is expected to win no seat, will be strategically deserted on average by about 3 per cent of the voters. This number does systematically vary with the district magnitude of each district. Nevertheless even in Portugal's largest electoral district, Lisbon, strategic voting can be observed to have a systematic impact on parties vote shares. Moreover there is evidence that strategic voting can partly account for the majoritarian trend that can be observed within the Portuguese party system." (author's abstract)... view less
Keywords
electoral district; voting behavior; voter; election; Portugal; strategy; election result; party system; election by proportional representation
Classification
Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture
Method
empirical
Free Keywords
elections; proportional representation; strategic voting; party systems; electoral behaviour
Document language
English
Publication Year
2007
Page/Pages
p. 15-31
Journal
Portuguese Journal of Social Science, 6 (2007) 1
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1386/pjss.6.1.15_1
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications
Data providerThis metadata entry was indexed by the Special Subject Collection Social Sciences, USB Cologne