China's responses after the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine vis-à-vis the European Union and its own population

Abstract

This study examines the Chinese party-state's reactions to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, focusing on its response to the European Union (EU) and its own population during the first six months of the war's outbreak. Drawing on actor-centred institutionalism, it analyses institutional changes and political steering actions by Chinese party-state actors, a perspective that has rarely been applied to China's foreign policy. The "explaining-outcome process tracing" method was applied to reconstruct political processes and interactions between actors based on extensive document and secondary data analysis. Findings reveal that the EU and its partners warned Chinese leaders not to help the Russian government evade sanctions. In this modified institutional setting, the Chinese party-state has responded with "soft" discursive steering towards the EU and, in addition to this "soft" element, with targeted "hard" steering actions towards its own population. While the political steering towards the EU has failed, the steering towards its own population seems to have been partially successful.